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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."